I told myself I was done with with Deflategate – and really, I was – that is, until I read … More
Tag: NFL
Everyone asked for Tebow. So, here he is
My recent article for FiveThirtyEight on QBR segmentation using density curves apparently had one big missing component, and his name is Tim … More
Going beyond the mean to analyze QB performance
A few months ago, my friend & writer Noah Davis asked me a question that was bothering him. I’ll paraphrase, but this … More
Peyton Manning and the postseason
In the wake of Sunday’s disappointing effort against Indianapolis, several scribes were quick to the task to either (i) degrade … More
Correlated parlays and the NFL
This upcoming weekend in the NFL playoffs, Seattle is favored to beat Carolina by 11 points, and the over/under for the … More
Stat pundit rankings: 2014 NFL win over/unders
We are back for another edition of the stat pundit rankings, where we rank the accuracy of different predictions for team wins … More
Common sense & statistics, using NFL and NBA arrest rates
In his bi-annual mailbag, ESPN’s Bill Simmons takes a sarcastic tone to the NFL, advocating that the NBA should exploit … More
Penalty rates in the NFL
In a 2012 paper in Economic Inquiry, the University of Mississippi’s Carl Kitchens described how a repositioning of an NFL referee … More
2013 NFL regular season win totals: Who beat Las Vegas?
Back in August, several statistics-based websites posted predicted NFL win totals. A predicted win total represents the number of cumulative wins … More
Fumble luck, Part II
In my previous post, I explored a decade’s worth of NFL fumble recovery outcomes to find that, for the most … More
