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StatsbyLopez

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Tag: NFL

A generalized linear mixed model approach to estimating fumble frequencies in the National Football League

I told myself I was done with with Deflategate – and really, I was – that is, until I read … More

Fumbles, GLMM, NFL, Patriots

Everyone asked for Tebow. So, here he is

My recent article for FiveThirtyEight on QBR segmentation using density curves apparently had one big missing component, and his name is Tim … More

Density Curves, NFL, QBR, Tebow

Going beyond the mean to analyze QB performance

A few months ago, my friend & writer Noah Davis asked me a question that was bothering him. I’ll paraphrase, but this … More

Density Curves, FiveThirtyEight, NFL, QBR

Peyton Manning and the postseason

In the wake of Sunday’s disappointing effort against Indianapolis, several scribes were quick to the task to either (i) degrade … More

Brady, Manning, NFL, quarterback

Correlated parlays and the NFL

This upcoming weekend in the NFL playoffs, Seattle is favored to beat Carolina by 11 points, and the over/under for the … More

NFL, over under, point spread

Stat pundit rankings: 2014 NFL win over/unders

We are back for another edition of the stat pundit rankings, where we rank the accuracy of different predictions for team wins … More

accuscore, FiveThirtyEight, Football Outsiders, NFL, over under wins, predictionmachine, team rankings

Common sense & statistics, using NFL and NBA arrest rates

In his bi-annual mailbag, ESPN’s Bill Simmons takes a sarcastic tone to the NFL, advocating that the NBA should exploit … More

arrest rates, NBA, NFL, Simmons

Penalty rates in the NFL

In a 2012 paper in Economic Inquiry, the University of Mississippi’s Carl Kitchens described how a repositioning of an NFL referee … More

holding, holding penalties, NFL

2013 NFL regular season win totals: Who beat Las Vegas?

Back in August, several statistics-based websites posted predicted NFL win totals. A predicted win total represents the number of cumulative wins … More

NFL, over under

Fumble luck, Part II

In my previous post, I explored a decade’s worth of NFL fumble recovery outcomes to find that, for the most … More

fumble luck, NFL

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