Readings

Readings are due the Tuesday of each week, as we will discuss them before or as part of our lecture.

*: Please print this article and bring to class

Week 1 (Jan 26-28, review of introductory material, three types of articles)

Week 2 (Feb 2-4, baseball statistics, expected runs, runs created)

Week 3 (Feb 9-11, pitcher statistics, multiple regression)

Week 4 (Feb 16-18, kickers, logistic regression)

Week 5 (Feb 23-25, expected points, NFL play-calling)

Week 7 (Mar 8 – 10, NBA, shot value)

Week 8 (Mar 22 – 24, NHL, shot metrics)

 

Week 9 (Mar 29 – Mar 31, Stein’s paradox)

 

Week 10 (Apr 5 – 7, referee analytics)

  1. Call reversals (Lopez and Davis)
  2. Do tough calls favor the home team? (Lopez)
  3. Referee bias (Dohmen and Sauermann)
  4. Scorecasting (Wertheim, Moskowitz)

 

Week 11 (Apr 12 – 14, power rankings & paired comparisons)

  1. ESPN’s BPI (ESPN Stats & Info)
  2. ESPN’s FPI (ESPN Stats & Info)
  3. Summary of the Bradley-Terry model (Long)
  4. Bradley Terry models in R (Turner, Firth)
  5. Everyone uses the same rating system (Long)
  6. NFL Elo ratings (FiveThirtyEight, optional)
  7. NBA Elo history (FiveThirtyEight, optional)

 

Week 11 (Apr 19 – 21, statistics in soccer)

  1. Introduction to Analytics in Soccer (U of Toronto)
  2. What analytics can teach us (538)
  3. Expected goals 2.0 (11tegen11)
  4. Best predictor for future performance (11tegen11)
  5. Repeatability of finishing skill (Opta)
  6. 12 shots good, 2 shots better (Power of goals)

 

Add-ons (to be added for future versions of the course)

xCommentary (Knutson)

Who actually won the Moneyball revolution?  (Slate)

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