In the middle of Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book “The only rule is it has to work,” which highlights the…
Matching to estimate the causal effects of firing an NFL coach
Note: This post is a bit longer than usual. It’s part tutorial and part analysis. Feel free to jump to the…
Maximizing expected value != maximizing win probability
Note: This is a guest post by Juho Jokinen. Lately, there has been some discussion about choosing between the extra…
Indeed, the NBA’s regular season is too long
The last year or so has sprung a few interesting articles that point to both travel and back-to-back contests as taking a toll on…
When the first play of an NFL game is a pass, the second play is more likely to be a run
It’s no secret that American football lags behind several other sports in its perceived ability to use statistical tools. But in…
Up 7 late – should you go for two?
During two of the last three Sunday Night Football contests, one of the participating teams scored in the final few minutes…
Summary of the 2016 Boston Hockey Analytics conference
I spent last Saturday at the first Boston Hockey Analytics conference, a gathering of analytically inclined hockey faithful. For those…
If it felt like NFL teams were more aggressive in Week 1, they were
Researchers have long and loudly banged the drum that NFL teams should be more aggressive on fourth downs. Among other…
Goal to go behavior in football – pass it on second down?
During Sunday’s NCAA contest between Notre Dame and Texas, the Longhorns faced a second-and-goal from the Irish one yard line…
JSM calendar, 2016
The 2016 Joint Statistical Meetings start Sunday in Chicago. Karl Broman put out his calendar – I figured I’d put mine…
