Note: This piece was written with Noah Davis, and stemmed from a survey we put together roughly a year ago. …
On the ideas that people refuse to test
In the middle of Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller’s book “The only rule is it has to work,” which highlights the…
Matching to estimate the causal effects of firing an NFL coach
Note: This post is a bit longer than usual. It’s part tutorial and part analysis. Feel free to jump to the…
Maximizing expected value != maximizing win probability
Note: This is a guest post by Juho Jokinen. Lately, there has been some discussion about choosing between the extra…
Indeed, the NBA’s regular season is too long
The last year or so has sprung a few interesting articles that point to both travel and back-to-back contests as taking a toll on…
When the first play of an NFL game is a pass, the second play is more likely to be a run
It’s no secret that American football lags behind several other sports in its perceived ability to use statistical tools. But in…
Up 7 late – should you go for two?
During two of the last three Sunday Night Football contests, one of the participating teams scored in the final few minutes…
