When I was 6, he was my babysitter who made peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and I cried because there … More
Author: statsbylopez
The blog has moved!
To facilitate an easier sharing of code and figures, I’ve started a RMarkdown blog, which you will find at http://statsbylopez.netlify.com/. All … More
Triggered – a look at the LSU judge sentencing paper
One of the reasons I love the application of statistics to sports is the unique ways in which sports can … More
Evaluating sports predictions against the market
A few friends have been working on an algorithm for predicting baseball game outcomes. Roughly, the model uses player level … More
Evaluating the evaluators
Thursday’s NFL draft marks the culmination of several months — or perhaps years — of work. The amount of preparation that team scouts and … More
Nuts and bolts, the Metro Division got (a little bit) screwed
Here’s a look at the NHL’s final regular standings in the Eastern Conference from 2016-17. As a reminder, eight teams in … More
Towards an understanding of the NHL’s final standings
In a recent paper, Gregory Matthews, Ben Baumer, and I looked at the role of randomness in professional sports outcomes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, … More
All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful
As in the moments following the 2016 US election, win probabilities took center stage in public discourse after New England’s comeback victory in … More
In Sloan’s paper contest, irreproducibility takes the stage
Over the last few years, researchers across fields have uncovered something that’s simultaneously humbling, frustrating, and scary: most research doesn’t … More
Ref’s may respond to player aggression, too
Hockey die-hards like the sports’ reputation that the players police themselves. That is, teammates have one another’s backs, and acts of malice against … More