Random notes from the Bruins Blackhawks series, and some final numbers from the Bruins postseason run.
1- Chicago had more shots than the Bruins in 5 of 6 games, outshooting the Bruins by an average of 6 shots a game. That said, using the unofficial collection of NBC’s scoring chances (the NHL does not keep this official stat), the Bruins had more scoring chances in 4 of the 5 games (Game 2 was Chicago’s, Game 5 was roughly even, Game 1, 3-4, 6 were in Boston’s favor as far as scoring chances go).
2- Zdeno Chara was on the ice for 10 of Chicago’s final 12 goals.
2a- In his last three games, Chara finished with a +/- of -6. In his lengthy career, Chara has only played three consecutive games with that ranking or lower twice.
3- If you are like me, you felt like the hockey Gods turned against Boston in this series. Specifically, I looked into some recent post history as far as teams hitting the post or the crossbar, and its effect on game outcomes.
3a – According to game play by play data, for the series the Bruins hit 6 posts/crossbars. Chicago hit the post twice.
3b – For the playoffs, the Bruins hit the post 24 times, their opponents 11. While I didn’t go through every NHL team’s history, I’m pretty confident in saying, based on the frequencies I saw, that this is a record for hit posts. Great.
3c – Unofficially (I lost track), Jaromir Jagr hit the pipe four times this postseason. More on him later.
3d – If this makes you think posts are simply correlated with being the better team, I’m not so sure. In their three previous rounds, Chicago hit the post 8 times, their opponents 9.
3e – For what its worth, each team hit the post 4 times in the Bruins Canucks finals from 2011, and in the overall 2011 postseason, the Bruins hit the pipe 12 times, compared to 10 for their opponents.
4- Jaromir Jagr scored 0 goals on 58 shots. In doing so, he set the NHL record for shots in a single postseason without scoring. Chicago’s Nick Leddy, with 31 shots, was next on the NHL’s list of players with the most shots who failed to score.
4a- In going through every NHL postseason to make sure that no player had eclipsed Jagr’s 58 shots with 0 goals, I kept track of each player who led the league in shots without a goal. In doing so, I found some interesting names:
Tomas Kaberle, 2011 (Bruins): 33 shots, 0 goals
Andrew Ference, 2004 (Calgary): 37 shots, 0 goals
Ray Bourque, 1989 (Bruins): 40 shots, 0 goals
Interestingly, Kaberle, Ference, and Bourque were all defensemen, so I guess it makes sense that most of their shots didn’t go in.
4b- Up until 2013, Jagr had 78 goals on 604 shots in his postseason career (12.9%). The probability of a shooter who converts 12.9% of his opportunities suddenly scoring 0 goals in 58 chances is roughly 3 in 10,000.
4c- One might argue it’s not fair to compare Jagr to prior NHL postseasons, because by playing a higher number of games as the Bruins did this year, Jagr naturally accumulated a higher number of shots. Fair enough.
That said, of all centers and forwards across the entire NHL in the 2013, not a single one registered 58 shots without scoring a goal.
Further, dating to the 2005 lockout, I looked at every season of all NHL forwards and centers, and there was not a single entry in which a player had 58 shots and no goals. So yes, this was a pretty historic effort from #68.
5 – If the old guy is guilty, so too is the young one. Bruins forward Tyler Seguin finished with 71 shots and 1 goal. In doing so, Seguin set an NHL postseason record for fewest goals on at least 70 shots.
5a – For his career, Seguin scores goals on 10.5% of his shots. The likelihood of a 10.5% goal scorer scoring 1 goal on 71 shots is about 3 in 1000.
Epilogue: What does this all mean? It’s time for the Bruins to improve their shot accuracy, and its time for me to go to bed.
Reblogged this on Stats in the Wild.